Research

Peer-Reviewed Publications

“Modernization in Progress: Part-Year Operation, Capital Accumulation, and Labor Force Composition in Late Imperial Russia” (with Amanda Gregg)

Journal of Economic History 82.4 (2022): 1143-82 

Runner-up for Arthur H. Cole Prize in Journal of Economic History for the best article in the previous year's volume (2023).

Abstract: This paper investigates part-year factory operation, a common but understudied dimension of industrializing economies, in a prototypical late-industrializing setting that offers rich factory-level data: Imperial Russia. Newly compiled data provides detailed descriptions of all Russian manufacturing firms operating in 1894 and shows that factories operating a greater number of annual working days were more mechanized, more urban, more likely to employ women and children, more productive, and more likely to survive. Rather than arguing that part-year operation demonstrated Russia’s uniquely inexorable backwardness, we stress operating time’s relationship to fundamental drivers of growth including urbanization, geography, and institutions. 

Working Papers

“Intergenerational Mobility over Two Centuries” 

(with Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan, in preparation for the Handbook of Intergenerational Mobility) 

NBER Working Paper No. 33330. First Draft: January, 2025

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of recent empirical and methodological advances in the study of historical intergenerational mobility trends, with a focus on key measurement challenges. These advances are made possible by the recent digitization of historical censuses and new methods of historical record-linking, which have enabled researchers to create large historical samples of parent-child links. We identify three main findings. First, absolute mobility increased in the decades leading up to 1940 but has since declined, both in the US and other industrial countries. Second, recent studies on relative mobility question the classic narrative that the US has transitioned from a “land of opportunity” in the 19th century to a less mobile society today, suggesting that mobility was not as high in the past. However, estimates of relative mobility are sensitive to choices regarding sample selection and measurement. Third, we explore mechanisms underlying shifts in intergenerational mobility over time, including geographic mobility, wealth shocks, educational attainment, locational effects, and the transmission of parent-specific human capital. We conclude by suggesting avenues for future research.

"Technology Diffusion through Cultural Links: Evidence from Industrial Firms in Late Imperial Russia" (with Timur Natkhov)

Abstract: This paper examines the role of ethnic connections in the diffusion of industrial innovation. We employ machine learning to assign probable ethnicities to nearly 16,000 firm owners. We compare firms owned by entrepreneurs with cultural connections to Europe (Germans, Poles, etc.) with Russian-owned firms. “Connected” firms exhibited higher productivity, employed modern machinery and advanced management practices. We establish the knowledge diffusion channel by showing, among others, that “connected” firms traded more with Europe. German-origin entrepreneurs had the largest advantage in chemicals – Germany’s leading industry. Our findings highlight the importance of cultural links in the diffusion of the Industrial Enlightenment.

"Culture, Economic Stress, and Missing Girls" (with Viktor Malein and Francisco Beltrán Tapia)  

CEPR Discussion Paper DP18761. Under Review.

Abstract: Cultural norms play a pivotal role in shaping how societies respond to crises. This study examines the causal effect of ethnic-specific gender norms on gender-biased mortality during resource shocks. Studying the 1891-1892 Russian famine, we compare cohorts born before and after the famine in districts differentially affected by the famine and with diverse gender norms. Our findings reveal that areas where women were depicted more negatively suffered a more skewed sex ratio favouring male survival. Our empirical exercise further stresses the importance of the cultural channel in driving these results and emphasizes the role of agency in survival outcomes. This study sheds light on the profound influence of cultural norms on survival-relevant decisions during crises, pointing at culturally ingrained channels of discrimination.

Works in Progress

“Talent, Trust, and Health: The Effects of the First Female Physicians”    

Stanford's Inaugural 3-Minute Thesis Competition, 2nd Place Award. [Video]

How did the entry of women into historically male high-skill occupations shape the productivity and organization of those professions? This paper examines the first large-scale entry of female doctors into the medical profession following the Russian Empire’s 1872 decision to open the world’s first full-length medical school for women. Leveraging novel annual data on physician employment and vital statistics in over 300 districts from 1876–1910, augmented with data on direct healthcare provision metrics, I study the effects of the hiring of the first female physicians on health outcomes. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design based on quasi-random timing of replacement hires, I find that female physician entry led to large and persistent declines in infant mortality and in young adult mortality of both sexes, resulting in increases in population growth. The first female physicians improved hospital care and drew more female patients into formal medical care, evidenced by their displacement of untrained midwives.  I further find that female physicians fleeing the 1917 Russian Revolution to the US reduced infant mortality in rural US counties. I develop a conceptual framework to disentangle positive selection of women into medicine from demand-side concordance preference mechanisms, and show that observed effects came from both the female physicians' greater overall effectiveness compared to the male doctors and from increased care-seeking among women.